> http://lbo-news.com/2010/08/19/robert-reich-on-social-security-no-problem/
Yeah, but with weak-hearted friends like these:
There was no political pressure. The actuary at the Social
Security Trust Fund wanted to play it exceedingly safe. I did
raise a number of questions. I think that at the earlier part of
the 90s those extraordinarily safe and conservative projections
were not unreasonable. But now they're foolish. We've had a
number of years now of economic growth over 4%; even if the
economy slows down it's very unlikely that growth will be under
2.5 or 2.6% a year, and with that pace of growth Social Security
is a nonissue. It won't be a problem. We'll be able to pay all
our Social Security obligations.
This seems to imply that if we get a couple of low growth years like the early 90s -- like we're looking at now -- these numbers are suddenly reasonable again. Doesn't this man understand the concept of "average?"
They were never reasonable. As you've been pointing out for 20 years, "exceedingly safe" is actually nuts. It's assuming a 75 year depression -- in the event of which, pension shortfalls will be the least of our problems.
Michael