[lbo-talk] Bobby Reich, 1999: Social Security just fine

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Thu Aug 19 16:42:24 PDT 2010



> http://lbo-news.com/2010/08/19/robert-reich-on-social-security-no-problem/

Yeah, but with weak-hearted friends like these:

There was no political pressure. The actuary at the Social

Security Trust Fund wanted to play it exceedingly safe. I did

raise a number of questions. I think that at the earlier part of

the 90s those extraordinarily safe and conservative projections

were not unreasonable. But now they're foolish. We've had a

number of years now of economic growth over 4%; even if the

economy slows down it's very unlikely that growth will be under

2.5 or 2.6% a year, and with that pace of growth Social Security

is a nonissue. It won't be a problem. We'll be able to pay all

our Social Security obligations.

This seems to imply that if we get a couple of low growth years like the early 90s -- like we're looking at now -- these numbers are suddenly reasonable again. Doesn't this man understand the concept of "average?"

They were never reasonable. As you've been pointing out for 20 years, "exceedingly safe" is actually nuts. It's assuming a 75 year depression -- in the event of which, pension shortfalls will be the least of our problems.

Michael



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list