[lbo-talk] Bill Gross's mass gov't refi proposal

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Sat Aug 21 21:57:24 PDT 2010


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/17/bill-gross-mortgage-refi-_n_685228.html

August 18, 2010

The Huffington Post

Famed Investor Bill Gross Calls For Massive Taxpayer-Backed Mortgage

Refinance Initiative

The head of the world's biggest bond fund, bemoaning the slow economic

recovery, reignited debate Tuesday by publicly supporting a massive new

refinance program currently roiling the mortgage bond market by

describing it as a form of fiscal stimulus that wouldn't add to the

deficit.

Bill Gross, who runs Pacific Investment Management Co.'s $239 billion

Total Return Fund, said that policymakers "should quickly re-engineer"

a plan that would refinance all non-delinquent mortgages backed by the

federal government. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged

a record-low 4.44 percent in the week ending Aug. 12, according to

taxpayer-owned mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

Taxpayers guarantee the mortgages of 37 million households, or

two-thirds of all homeowners with a mortgage, according to a July 29

note by David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. fixed-income

economist. That includes government agencies like the Federal Housing

Administration as well as twin behemoths Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Greenlaw estimates about 18.5 million taxpayer-backed mortgages are at

rates higher than 5.75 percent interest.

By refinancing those mortgages at current, lower rates, Greenlaw

believes those homeowners would save $46 billion a year. Gross said the

refi scheme would spur some $50-60 billion a year in new consumer

spending and raise home prices between 5-10 percent. Forecasters,

including Fannie Mae, say home prices are set to decline the rest of

the year and into 2011. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan

said this month that a so-called double-dip recession is possible "if

home prices go down."

In theory, the proposal would immediately help those homeowners, as

they'd save on their monthly mortgage payment, and it could help the

broader economy because homeowners could take the savings and spend it,

spurring growth. And because homeowners -- particularly those who owe

more on their mortgage than their house is worth -- would have more

affordable payments, less of them would fall behind and face

foreclosure, stabilizing the housing market and leading to an uptick in

prices.

"It's the last real big thing that an administration can do that's

caught between a Republican and Democratic orthodoxy and the inability

to legislate -- certainly in front of the election, and maybe even

afterwards as we have more evenly balanced constituents in Congress,"

Gross told the Huffington Post during a brief interview in between

sessions at the administration's Conference on the Future of Housing

Finance, held at the Treasury Department in Washington. "It's the one

thing they can do that doesn't increase the deficit and that doesn't

require legislation."

"[W]e are not recommending any change to the qualification for new

mortgages -- only refis," Greenlaw wrote in his note. "Thus, there is

no subsidy involved, and credit quality actually improves somewhat due

to the lower payment burden. This implies fewer foreclosures going

forward and less credit risk for the guarantor of the mortgage (i.e.,

the U.S. government)."

Story continues below

Government officials have dismissed the idea.

<end of excerpt>

Rest at:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/17/bill-gross-mortgage-refi-_n_685228.html

Michael



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