[lbo-talk] Budget Quickie

[Max Sawicky]

Yes, unless we get a recovery so awesome it overwhelms the 2.5% of
unstimulus.  They are forecasting real GDP growth of 4.4% (Q4 over Q4)
for 2011, so by advanced math the overall real growth is implied to be
seven percent.

On Mon, Feb 1, 2010 at 4:47 PM, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
>
> On Feb 1, 2010, at 4:37 PM, Max Sawicky wrote:
>
>> Tightening (change from 2010 to 2011):  1.1% discretionary, split
>> evenly between defense and non-defense; .7 in 'other mandatory' (not
>> TARP); receipts up 1.5%. Total is 2.5% of GDP (the difference is an
>> increase in net interest paid), as DH said yesterday.  (Terrible
>> fiscal policy)
>
> That's tight. So, given the usual multipliers, doesn't this suggest a >2.5%
> drag on GDP? Doesn't that tip us back into recession?
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