> Can you think of any great action of that period
> that was planned in advance in a series of rational steps beginning with
> a description of the present as real reality? I can't. Really, the few
> revolutions that have occurred, and the few fairly successful mass
> stuggles for substantive change, have all more or less caught by
> surprise those whose actions broguth them about.
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You could argue that more would-be revolutionaries and reformists have been surprised when the change they anticipated did not come about - from early Marxists who believed Western capitalist society was on the cusp of socialist revolution to euphoric US liberals on election night 2008. Those who successfully led the English, French, Russian, Chinese and other revolutions were mostly animated by a belief that the triumph of their cause was assured (inevitable") in their lifetime, and were rarely astonished at finding themselves in power. The trade unions and their political allies fully expected that their well-organized and sustained campaigns for the extension of the franchise, retirement pensions and unemployment insurance, shorter work hours, health and safety measures, universal education, the right to organize and strike, an end to discrimination against women and ethnic and racial minorities, and other reforms would ultimately be crowned with success.
All in all, Carrol provides a very good summation of the practical, tentative, empirical way protest movements feel for the stones when crossing the river rather than proceeding in accordance with an ideological blueprint. He'd also probably agree they can only go so far as the prevailing relationship of forces rather than their aspirations and programs dictate. They don't, however, originate as spontaneously, as unexpectedly and abruptly, as he suggests. Mass movements have typically developed and progressed through ever widening intiatives undertaken by organizations which were already well rooted in their communities - clubs, benefit societies, cooperatives, churches, trade unions, and parties - with an adequate understanding of the existing political and economic inequities ("the present as real reality") and of the reforms ("rational steps") necessary to reduce or eliminate them. Struggles for reform have always been ongoing - not always apparent to or well understood by those outside these communities and their organizations - but so is the widespread popular fear of of the unknown and of authority, and these struggles for reform have only gained traction when such fears have been supplanted by desperation, with natural and economic disasters and wars often providing the catalyst. Only then do ideologies promising hope come into their own, providing an essential lubricant propelling these movements forward.