[lbo-talk] weimar shadows

Bob Morris bob.morris at gmail.com
Sun Feb 7 00:07:56 PST 2010



> Completely different. The social base and the political content are almost
thoroughly opposites. The teabaggers are opposed to Obama's forced march to socialism, which exists only in their minds. The antiwar movement was opposed to imperial war, which was all too real.

I know Tea Partiers who are anti-war. And not foaming at the mouth about socialism. They also hate the bailouts and see the middle class getting crushed.

Right now the Right owns this by default. It doesn't have to be that way. But will be if the Left continues doing nothing.

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>From John Robb at Global Guerrillas
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2010/02/the-tea-party.html

The Tea Party movement in the US is an open source political protest. It emerged due to a substantial loss of government legitimacy (primarily from the mishandling of the global financial crisis) and continues to percolate as legitimacy continues to drain away from the government (health care, banking reform, unemployment, foreclosures, bankruptcy, deficit, etc.).

Here's what open source means in this context:

- Lots of small local groups (and individuals), with a plethora of

different motivations for action.

- No barriers to entry. Anybody can label themselves or their actions as

part of the Tea Party.

- Lots of networked activity and cross movement communication.

As a movement, it is very similar to open source warfare<http://spectrum.ieee.org/telecom/security/opensource-warfare>and therefore shares many of the same dynamics<http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471780790/ref=nosim/globalguerril-20>.

Here are a few of them:

- Its main value is systems disruption. It can slow political processes.

It can say no (the name, "Tea Party" is derived from an act of disruptive,

albeit non-violent, domestic terrorism directed at the government).

- There are lots of people trying to control it (grab the baton to lead

the parade) and form it into a cohesive whole. All of these efforts will

fail. Every attempt at control will be attacked and defeated by a majority

of Tea Party groups/members.

- Swarms. Groups will rapidly converge on attractive protest targets

(typically signaled by media coverage via stigmergy<http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2004/07/stigmergic_syst.html>).

Traditionally, a failure by the government would result in a gain by the opposition party. However, the peculiar dynamics of the two party system in the US works against this. The two parties have converged into a single dominant party with roughly similar agendas. Further, these parties have rigged the system to prevent third party formation. As a result, there isn't a structured process to absorb this movement into the political system. Here are some potential outcomes:

- It will merely damage the political party in power, preventing any

action by saying no to everything (regardless of which political party is in

power). A future Republican government presiding over more loses of

government legitimacy would yield movement growth and mutation.

- The Republicans will run an open source counter-insurgency against it,

co-opting some of its member groups (not all) and using them to fight

against the rest. The result will be dissipation through infighting which

will allow the Republicans to pick up former members.

- A new plausible promise emerges that allows it to grow and morph into

something else (more of an insurgency than a political protest). It's

unclear if the environment is ripe for this yet. A second financial crisis

or recession downdraft may afford it. Once it is ripe, all it takes is for

one subgroup to demonstrate the plausible promise through action (for

example: a real and not a metaphorical Tea Party).



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