AFL-CIO Poll Shows Union Households Boosted Brown
By MELANIE TROTTMAN
WASHINGTON—Republican Scott Brown's victory in the Massachusetts Senate race was lifted by strong support from union households, in a sign of trouble for President Barack Obama and Democrats who are counting on union support in the 2010 midterm elections.
A poll conducted on behalf of the AFL-CIO found that 49% of Massachusetts union households supported Mr. Brown in Tuesday's voting, while 46% supported Democrat Martha Coakley. The poll conducted by Hart Research Associates surveyed 810 voters.
The finding, disclosed during an AFL-CIO conference call about the poll, represents a fresh problem for Democrats, who count on union leaders and union members as a pillar of the party's base.
Karen Ackerman, the AFL-CIO's political action director, said the results of the Massachusetts poll indicate "what we call a working-class revolt" in which voters were responding to the fact that no one was addressing their needs or interests. But she played down the support among union household members for Mr. Brown.
"Union voters are like any other voters, and they respond to the environment around them" and who they think will be on their side and fight for them, Ms. Ackerman said. "What happened in Massachusetts is that working families did not see the Democratic candidate as being on their side."
She added that the AFL-CIO has "very good success" reaching out to union voters and did have a union program in Massachusetts in support of the Democratic candidate, state Attorney General Martha Coakley. Still, she said the group does have concerns about the midterm congressional elections in November.
"Clearly, we're taking a serious look at this [working-class revolt] because, frankly, we know that 2010 elections are going to be very difficult," she said, adding that the group plans to move forward with a "very progressive political program."
The poll showed Ms. Coakley drew more support among voters with a college education, by a five-point margin, while she lost by a 20-point margin among voters without a college degree.
Guy Molyneux, a pollster with Hart Research Associates, said the poll showed "pretty strong evidence" of voters who worried the health-care overhaul moving through Congress would tax their employer-provided benefits, even though Mr. Obama had agreed to a deal that exempted workers in collective bargaining agreements until 2018. Unions stepped up their campaign efforts for Ms. Coakley after that, but it wasn't enough to turn the tide.
The AFL-CIO's pollster also said the election was more about the two specific candidates than about being a referendum on Mr. Obama or the national Democratic Party's agenda. By 61% to 33%, the voters polled said they were picking the best candidate for Massachusetts rather than sending a message to Washington. Nearly two-thirds of the voters who elected Mr. Brown said they wanted him to work with Democrats in Washington.
Brad Woodhouse, communications director for the Democratic National Committee, said "it would be foolhardy" to draw firm conclusions on this or other issues from a single special election that included circumstances particular to the candidates and campaigns in that race.
"The election in Massachusetts involved the same type of frustration and anger at Washington and the current state of the economy that swept President Obama into office in 2008," Mr. Woodhouse said.
Democrats must remind voters daily of their efforts to improve the economy and create jobs, and must ensure voters understand "Republicans—as they always have—continue to side with Wall Street and the special interests," he said.
Republican strategist Eric Fehrnstrom, a senior adviser on Mr. Brown's campaign, said there is a "huge disconnect" between union rank-and-file and their own leaders. "Like everyone else, union members are concerned about higher taxes and increased spending, and they want a tougher approach in dealing with terrorists," he said. Mr. Fehrnstrom said Mr. Brown is a member of the Screen Actors Guild union.
Signs that unions can't deliver rank-and-file votes present another challenge for labor leaders trying to salvage their legislative priorities, including a bill that would make it easier for them to organize workers and win initial labor contracts from employers through arbitration. AFL-CIO lobbyist Bill Samuel said the union still holds out hope for the Employee Free Choice Act, which was stalled in the Senate before Mr. Brown's election.
"We don't see it being dead," he said. "We're obviously reallocating our strategy and the timing," he said.
Mr. Samuel still expects a vote on the bill to occur this year, he said. "That's our plan."
Write to Melanie Trottman at melanie.trottman at wsj.com