I think it's big time giving the ruling class too much credit. The whole Bush cabinet resembled nothing so much as small town businessmen (owner of the car dealership, local dentist, insurance salesman, et al.) that sit around the country club and fantasize about how they could run the world -- the sort that think smart strong types like them just need to say to Sunnis and Shias, "You just cut the crap," and the problem would be solved. They get lots of flattery because of money and connections. Then these very mediocre people find themselves in a room with career policy staff, some of whom are quite bright and others of whom have gotten there because they're so good at flattering up, and the latter tend to be more influential. I think the result is that you get a mish-mash of actual policy objectives with personal prejudices. According to Kirschner, Bush said in 2004 that the only times the U.S. economy was good was during its wars. The U.S. has
a kind of punitive teach-them-a-lesson streak of self-righteousness that shouldn't be underestimated (like cut spending during a major recession 'cause it'll teach the lower orders a lesson). And good policy analysts may not see oil as a reason for war in the Middle East, but the people making the decisions were oil men, and they likely think largely in terms of oil.
And it's frequently mediocre people who make the decisions just as if they were sitting in the small town country club bar. This isn't to say that all the decisions are just idiosyncratic individual decisions, because the interests of other powerful people will be brought to bear to assure decisions in favor of the elites. But it does mean that the folly of individuals frequently plays a big enough role that figuring out the why is virtually impossible.
________________________________ Doug: I don't know, but maybe it's to give the ruling class too much credit to assume there's a big picture behind everything they do.
Chuck Grimes: Trying to figure out what foreign policy planners had in mind, is ... I draw a blank. I look at the destruction and stupidity of every move they've made and still can't quite believe it.