[lbo-talk] Exploring the openings created by Arctic melting

Dennis Claxton ddclaxton at earthlink.net
Thu Mar 4 16:39:59 PST 2010


Earlier this week I was reading a Financial Times profile of Iceland one year on from last October. There was a reference there to global warming being a possible boon for Iceland's recovery:


>And yet, Iceland can work her way out of this crisis. There are the
>country's much-envied fisheries, and global warming will bring about
>the future opening of shipping routes across the Arctic Circle, with
>Iceland as their hub.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/bc6e24b8-b3a5-11de-ae8d-00144feab49a.html

I wondered if this kind of thing was common, at least in the Financial Times. Today I have an answer. This is from day before yesterday:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fd3e7212-2598-11df-9bd3-00144feab49a.html

Exploring the openings created by Arctic melting

By Kathrin Hille in Beijing and Isabel Gorst in Moscow

Published: March 2 2010 02:00 | Last updated: March 2 2010 02:00

China has started paying attention to the strategic implications of the melting of Arctic ice and could seek a more active role in regulating use of the region, a report said yesterday.

The report comes as Russia prepares to sail a large oil tanker the entire length of its Arctic sea coast for the first time, opening a strategic energy trading bridge between European Russia and east Asia.

The findings of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's paper indicate that the Arctic could emerge as another area in which China starts defining global strategic interests, following its increasing investments in Africa and moves to build a presence in the Indian Ocean.

SIPRI said the prospect of the Arctic being navigable during the summer had driven Beijing to allocate more funds for polar research, and scholars were increasingly pushing the government to develop an Arctic strategy.

"Because China's economy is reliant on foreign trade, there are substantial commercial implications if shipping routes are shortened during the summer months each year," the report said. It added that taking the northern route through an ice-free Arctic could shorten the trip from Shanghai to Hamburg by 6,400km compared with sailing through the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal. In addition, piracy-induced high insurance costs could be avoided.

The report said another potential strategic interest for China could be the extraction of the Arctic's natural resources.

Linda Jakobson, author of the report, said although China had one of the world's strongest polar research programmes, Beijing had yet to assess the economic and security implications of an ice-free Arctic as it was "wary that active overtures would [alarm] other countries due to China's size and status as a rising global power".

Sovcomflot, Russia's state shipping company, will sail an oil tanker accompanied by nuclear-powered ice breakers from Vitino on the White Sea to Japan in July, in a pilot voyage marking the start of oil exports along the northern route.

Sergei Frank, chief executive of Sovcomflot, said the Arctic route would be a "floating pipeline", gradually helping Russia re-orientate its oil and gas exports away from Europe towards more dynamic eastern markets, including China.

Mr Frank ruled out the possibility of Chinese container vessels using the route, citing unpredictable navigation conditions and high insurance rates. "It's nonsense," he said.

"China is particularly wary of Russia and whether it might demand high passage fees, which could erase some or most of the potential efficiency gains," Ms Jakobson said.

Sovcomflot, already the world's biggest owner of ice-class vessels, expects to corner the market in Arctic energy shipping as huge new oil and gas reserves are developed in Polar regions.

Mr Frank said Russia's northern route would not be closed to foreign shipping companies but users would need to comply with Russian environmental and navigation rules.

Ms Jakobson added that the strategic situation in the Arctic was "much more complicated" than the Antarctic.

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