On 2010-11-05, at 11:42 PM, Somebody Somebody wrote:
> Marvin: Perhaps the turnout has been stable for the electorate as a whole, but there seems to be at least some preliminary evidence that the core Democratic constituencies voted in significantly fewer numbers in the latest election, and that the independents who voted for Obama in 2010 switched back to the Republicans en masse.
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> Somebody: Sure, but we already know that mid-term elections normally have much lower turnouts than Presidential elections. This last election was perfectly in line with the historical precedent in this regard. Comparing 2010 to 2008 is comparing apples and oranges. The relevant comparison is 2010 to 2006, 2002, 1998, etc. And again, the turnout this time looks like it was higher than in those mid-terms.
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> We're left then with the composition of the electorate, of core Democratic versus core Republican turnout, as you and Doug point out. However, so far I see no data that the youth or minority turnout was lower than is typical for mid-term elections. I'd be happy to be proved wrong.
The youth turnout appears also to have been lower than in the midterm 2006 election, when the Democrats took control of the House, Senate, and state legislatures. According to Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, which bills itself as "the nation’s premier research organization on the civic and political engagement of young Americans", almost nine million Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 voted last week, about a million less than in the 2006 midterms. ttp://www.civicyouth.org/youth-turnout-about-20-comparable-to-recent-midterm-years/
The organization estimates about 22 million young Americans voted in the presidential election of 2008, a record 66% of them for the Democratic candidate. http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_youth_Voting_2008_updated_6.22.pdf
I can't vouch for the reliability of these statistics, but they do reinforce the widespread impression that many millions of students who were fired up for Obama in the presidential election two years ago - which I do think is the more relevant benchmark, even discounting for the much lower turnout in midterms - stayed home this time. I don't know what the comparative data would reveal for trade unionists, blacks, Hispanics, women, gays etc., but it would not surprise me if they also indicated a similar dropoff in support for Obama.
Whether you want to blame it on subjective or objective conditions or some combination of both, as I do, it stands to reason that those who voted for Obama would no longer be enthused about an administration perceived to have spent trillions protecting bankers and bondholders while their own conditions have steadily deteriorated.