[lbo-talk] Tea Party: less than meets the eye

knowknot at mindspring.com knowknot at mindspring.com
Sat Nov 6 08:53:31 PDT 2010


> . . . the way Democratic whites . . .

. . . and in this connection only/mostly "whites"? . . .

> . . . express their displeasure is by not voting.

Mainstream print and electronic commentators have been framing what they label as post-election "analysis" almost entirely in terms of the Dems, in general, and Obama in particular, "losing" the so-called "independent" voters - and that seem correct, as far as it goes. But such commentary including some postings to this List seem so far to be mostly in the nature of fiat instead of fact-reporting that addresses (much less which purports to answer) the question below; and so:

Do any of the Savants here know how/where can one probably find polling and also actual voting data from which one can try actually to verify the mainstream version while also answering this correlative "framing" question:

If Dem. self-identified persons who voted for Obama in 2008 had pretty much all voted this time, how many would probably have voted for Repub. or others instead of for Dem. or functionally equivalent (i.e., Dems. running as a cross-endorsee on some other actual or nominal party's ballot line) candidates and approximately how many the ousted Dems probably would have remained in office - in other words, data which, realistically estimated, would help answer whether the "independents" who the Dems "lost" would have been offset if the erstwhile self-identified Dem. voters turned off by Obama's policies and by congressional Dem. haplessness and worse during the past few years and so who stayed home on Nov. 2 had voted instead?



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