[lbo-talk] any irish lbo-talkers out there?

Wendy Lyon wendy.lyon at gmail.com
Mon Nov 8 22:43:54 PST 2010


On 9 November 2010 02:27, SA <s11131978 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>  Given current events, I'd love to hear a bit about the political situation over there. Are the travails of austerity having an effect on the political balance of forces? Any movement on the left?

Not really. The government is incredibly unpopular, and is almost certain to face meltdown at the next election (which most people are expecting within the next six months - though personally I think we've heard that one before....) but the two opposition parties that are likely to replace them, Fine Gael and Labour, have more or less exactly the same economic policies. They're both on board with the EU's insistence that the deficit be reduced to 3% of GDP by 2014 (even though the government's own economic think tank says this is a bad idea) and they both support austerity measures to achieve this. Labour at least would combine this with minor tax increases on the wealthy in order to avoid the worst hits on the poor, but in other respects they're virtually indistinguishable from the other main parties. In their leader's recent parliamentary speech on the economy he called for pay freezes, cutting the social welfare budget, abolishing rent supplement and abolishing tax credits for trade union subscriptions, which must have gone down really well with the unions who fund the party.

There are smaller left parties outside this consensus, of course, but the most they can really hope for is picking up a seat or two in the next election. They're not really going to have any influence.

Civil society, superficially, looks a little bit better. There is widespread opposition to the austerity measures there, and there has been some effort to organise this opposition. There was a big conference a couple weeks ago which brought together trade unions, NGOs and various political/community activists on the left to talk about how to take this forward. I wasn't there, but the feedback I've heard was that the ideas were great but there's skepticism as to what will come out of it. The big problem is that most of these folks are still linked to Labour and are never going to turn their backs on them, something that Labour well know.



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