[lbo-talk] Negawatts instead of megawatts

W. Kiernan wkiernan at gmail.com
Mon Oct 4 17:49:13 PDT 2010


On 10/12/2009 7:58 PM, James Heartfield wrote:

> Shane does not seem to understand that if you increase

> people's incomes without increasing output to meet demand,

> all that will happen is that the price of the electricity

> will increase. The projected increase in utility bills

> reflects the government target of reducing CO2 emissions,

> of which the shelving of the Kingsnorth plant is a practical

> manifestation.

>

> If you make less of something, there is less of it to go

> around. It is not rocket science.

James does not seem to have read the conclusion of _the article to which he himself linked_,

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/1632000-annual-fuel-bills-loom-to-fund-new-power-stations-1800570.html

wherein the worst scenario, a 60% plus increase in domestic power bills, is one which combines a rapid recovery from the bank shenanigans, combined with NO effort to meet "environmental targets," while a rapid recovery plus "significant investment in green measures" yields a 23% increase. Of those two, which do you suppose your hate object Algore likes the best? But read all four scenarios; here I (briefly and fair-useily, lawyers for the Independent) quote that conclusion:

----- begin quote -----

The future: How energy bills could rise

1. Green Transition: In this scenario there is a rapid economic recovery and a significant expansion in investment in green measures. Domestic renewables targets are met and energy efficiency measures are effective. British demand for gas falls, but electricity demand increases due to greater use of electric vehicles and heat pumps. The effect on domestic consumer bills is an increase of 23% by 2020.

2. Green Stimulus: There is a slow recovery from the recession and restricted availability of finance. Governments around the world implement green stimulus packages to achieve environmental goals and boost economic activity. High carbon prices and government policies support investment in renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage. The effect on domestic consumer bills is an increase of 14% by 2020.

3. Dash for Energy: Global economies bounce back strongly but security of supply concerns prevail over meeting environmental targets. Competition between countries for energy resources results in tight gas supplies and high fuel prices. Supply chain and planning constraints prevent new nuclear plants from becoming operational before 2020. The effect on domestic consumer bills is an increase of more than 60% by 2016 before falling back.

4. Slow Growth: The recession continues resulting in investment in gas and electricity infrastructure being considerably lower than before the credit crunch. Low gas and electricity prices reduce incentives to build nuclear and renewable power plants. This results in an increasing dependence on imported gas for new gas-fired power stations. The effect on domestic consumer bills is low in early years but an increase of 22% by 2020 as conditions tighten.

----- end quote -----

yrs wdk



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