[WS:] I think you are missing a few important details. First, the downfall of Ancien Régimes resulted, for the most part from external circumstances, such as defeat in WWI in case of Russia or Japanese occupation in case of China. It was NOT - and let me be quite emphatic about this - not brought about by popular discontent, let alone any revolutionary party, even though popular discontent was quite high under these regimes. The downfall of the Ancien Régime created a window of opportunity for revolutionary groups to grab power.
Second, there were many revolutionary groups and factions vying for power, and all of them received some support from some segments of society and opposition from other segments. The decisive feature in one faction winning over other factions was not generalized popular support (which never existed) - but the faction's ability to mobilize support of key power wielders (e.g. the army or armed groups or warlords) or to secure foreign support. Case in point: the Socialist Revolutionaries commanded a much higher level of popular support in Russia than the Bolsheviks, yet they were defeated by the latter in the course of the Russian revolution.
In sum, I believe that the role of strategic deployment of resources and taking advantage of opening opportunities plays a far larger role in revolutionary victories than the initial level of public support (which is never universal, not even close.)
Wojtek
On Wed, Oct 13, 2010 at 9:17 AM, Marv Gandall <marvgandall at videotron.ca> wrote:
>
> On 2010-10-13, at 12:27 AM, Miles Jackson wrote:
>
>> On 10/12/2010 09:23 PM, Somebody Somebody wrote:
>>> Miles: After the active minority succeeds, the rest of the population conform to the new social reality.
>>>
>>>
>>> Somebody: Is that what you're still aiming for? A new revolutionary order that folks just "conform" to? That sure worked the last couple dozen times around.
>>
>> I'm just describing what has happened in the past. I guess you can ignore the evidence if you like.
>
> The historical evidence in fact suggests otherwise - that the majority of Russians, Chinese, Cubans, Vietnamese, Nicaraguans, Iranians, etc, were not neutral and unaffected, but welcomed the overthrow of the old order because they favoured the breakup of the landed estates and other large concentrations of property, an end to extreme social inequality and class oppression, national independence, and the other reforms embedded in the programs of the revolutionary movements. All of these movements functioned underground so the extent of their mass support could never be readily apparent. The incumbent regimes and supporting imperialist powers naturally denied the popular basis of these movements in order to justify their fierce repression against them.
>
> Disillusion and resignation ("conformity") - a sense that the goals of the revolution had not been attained or had been betrayed - set in later, but it was not characteristic of the generation which participated in the insurrection and civil war, during the so-called "heroic period" of these revolutions.
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