[lbo-talk] has the TP peaked

Jeffrey Fisher jeff.jfisher at gmail.com
Tue Oct 26 11:18:21 PDT 2010


This looks premature, to me.

And frankly it seems to me like (a) "mixed" results are a win for the TP, just like being "locked in tight races" suggests that they are often much more viable in general elections than lots of people, especially dem hacks, wanted to think, and (b) even losses may have more the effect of rallying them than sending them home with their tails between their legs.

Remains to be seen, because none of it has actually played itself out, yet, as far as I can tell.

On Tue, Oct 26, 2010 at 8:28 AM, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:


> [from The Note]
>
> HAS THE TEA PARTY PEAKED? It might be time for a Tea Party reality check.
> Although the power the movement has exerted over the Republican Party -- and
> the electoral successes their candidates enjoyed in the primaries -- is
> surely one of the most important story lines of the 2010 cycle, with exactly
> one week until Election Day where is the Tea Party now? As Republican and
> conservative groups shift their attention to get-out-the-vote efforts, some
> Tea Party activists are "refusing to cooperate with more mainstream
> Republicans," according to the Los Angeles Times' Tom Hamburger and Kathleen
> Hennessey. They write that unlike in previous years, the GOP turnout effort
> is taking a "patchwork" approach rather than a unified one led by the
> Republican National Committee: "FreedomWorks, a Washington-based group that
> has supported tea party activists across the country, expects to spend
> $500,000 on its own program that taps into the network of tea party
> supporters. Brendan Steinhauser, !
> director of state and federal campaigns at FreedomWorks, said the distance
> from the party was an advantage in recruiting new activists. 'A lot of
> people don't want to work with the Republican Party, for the most part,' he
> said. 'They like the candidate, but they don't want to go to GOP
> headquarters. They'll work with us.'" http://lat.ms/blYT18
>
> At the same time, many of the Tea Party candidates who scored stunning wins
> over establishment Republican contenders are now locked in tight races.
> Politico's Shira Toeplitz surveys the Senate landscape and finds that the
> Tea Party could get a "mixed return" on Nov. 2. "With about a week to go
> until Election Day, several candidates stamped with the tea party seal of
> approval are either locked in statistical ties with their Democratic
> opponents or sinking in the polls, despite well-funded war chests and
> endorsements from influential conservatives like former Alaska Gov. Sarah
> Palin and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.). In several cases, the candidates'
> staunchly conservative views, thin political credentials and lack of
> campaign experience -- the same assets that helped them upset the GOP status
> quo -- have become liabilities in the general election."
> http://politi.co/cAlvK7
>
> CRESTED WAVE? Nevada's Sharron Angle, Kentucky's Rand Paul and Alaska's Joe
> Miller, among others, may eventually prevail, but right now all three
> contests look tight. It may be all be part of a wave that "seems to have
> crested," according to political odds-maker Charlie Cook. "This is
> approximately where the 1994 election was -- something in the range of eight
> Senate seats, 52 House seats," Cook told the Washington Post's Michael
> Gerson. "A month ago, there was a chance it could have gone from gigantic to
> titanic. But the possibility of Republican House gains in the 60s or 70s has
> declined in the last month." http://wapo.st/dDosy8
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