It does suggest that we can't really tell whether the cohort leads the social change, or vice-versa? Or neither, I suppose, too . . .
On Mon, Apr 4, 2011 at 3:24 PM, Mark Bennett <bennett.mab at gmail.com> wrote:
> Well, maybe. The key quote on page 21 states: "A generational analysis
> textbook argues, 'According to almost any constant definition of
> conservatism people typically become less rather than more conservative as
> they age.'" The source for this conclusion is cited as "Cohort Analysis"
> (1977) by Norval Glenn. "Cohort Analysis" was completely rewritten by
> Professor Glenn and a second edition was published in 2005, "lacking even a
> single paragraph lifted from the [first edition]." In his preface to the
> second edition Professor Glenn writes the the new edition was needed
> because
> "I have changed my mind about some matters, new analysis strategies have
> been introduced, and the treatment of data sources is badly dated." He
> goes
> on to state: "Numerous authors have cited the first edition while ignoring
> the cautions in it, occasionally even citing it a authority for
> inappropriate applications of cohort analysis."
>
> When looking at the citation, the thought that immediately leaps to mind
> is
> that a hell of a lot has changed in American society and culture since
> 1977. As it happens, the second edition of "Cohort Analysis" is available
> in preview form from Google books (
>
> http://books.google.com/books?id=KZrEevjbE80C&printsec=frontcover&dq=Norval+glenn+cohort+analysis&source=bl&ots=LWZtsuBY3e&sig=VIgMmkvwEHnWvIiJAIFPDjK6Gk4&hl=en&ei=4RyaTfWqGPOK0QH5h9n2Cw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CBwQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=conservative&f=false
> ),
> and Professor Glenn's revised study appears to take this societal
> change
> in consideration:
>
> “ . . . not all changes that occur in individuals as they grow older are
> the
> results of aging. Especially in modern societies, people grow older not in
> a static society but in a changing one, and influences from social and
> cultural change impinge on persons as they grow older, bringing a bout
> changes in attitudes, behavior, health, and emotional states or offsetting
> effects that would result from aging in a static society. These period
> effects are confounded with age effects in the data from panel studies. To
> illustrate, in the United States, the birth cohorts that were in young
> adulthood in the 1970s had, as a whole, become more conservative in several
> respects by the late 1980s. One cannot tell how much, if any, of this
> shift
> resulted from influences associated with aging; the fact that the society
> as
> a whole changed in the same direction as the cohorts suggests that much, if
> not most, of the intracohort trend was brought about by period influences.
> Therefore panel studies that gauged the political attitudes of high school
> seniors in the mid-1970s and again 10 years later fail to provide strong
> evidence of any effects of the transition to adulthood.” (*Ibid*, p. 4.)
>
> Of course, to determine the full scope of the change in Professor Glenn's
> thinking would require a comparison between the first and second editions
> of
> "Cohort Analysis"; but the question arises why a voter demographics study
> published in 2010 would cite a conclusion from a 1977 study that was
> completely revised in 2005, and which apparently no longer contains the
> cited conclusion. (A search in Google Books does not uncover the statement
> quoted on p. 21 of the demographics survery, even on those pages not
> available for preview.) Again, the data available online is incomplete,
> but as Professor Glenn is now a contributor to the Cato Institute's blog,
> one wonders if he stands by his 1977 conclusion.
>
> http://www.cato-unbound.org/2008/01/21/norval-d-glenn/against-family-fatalism/
>
> On Mon, Apr 4, 2011 at 7:39 AM, Jeffrey Fisher <jeff.jfisher at gmail.com
> >wrote:
>
> > On Mon, Apr 4, 2011 at 9:27 AM, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > On Apr 4, 2011, at 10:16 AM, Jeffrey Fisher wrote:
> > >
> > > > On Sat, Apr 2, 2011 at 9:04 AM, Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
> > wrote:
> > > >
> > > >> But this is really heartening - because people don't get more
> > > conservative
> > > >> as they age.
> > > >
> > > > What's the data on this?
> > >
> > > See pp. 20-21 of this:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> http://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2010/06/pdf/voter_demographics.pdf
> > >
> > > Doug
> > >
> > >
> > Thanks.
> >
> > j
> > ___________________________________
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> >
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