On Mon, Apr 11, 2011 at 2:35 AM, Michael Pollak <mpollak at panix.com> wrote:
>
> [h/t to Milwaukee-ite Bryan Atinsky]
>
> http://www.politicususa.com/en/wisconsin-math
>
> April 8, 2011
> PoliticusUSA
>
> Clerk Kathy Nickolaus' Fuzzy Math Doesn't Add Up in Wisconsin Race
> By Sarah Jones
>
> GAB is sending staff to Waukesha County to review vote totals for the
> Wisconsin Supreme Court Race after Clerk Kathy Nickolaus' announced
> yesterday that she left the city of Brookfield off of the totals she
> initially reported. She explained that she uses Microsoft Access and
> that she forgot to hit "save" after manually inputting the numbers. She
> "found" 14,000 votes yesterday, which led to a net 7,500 votes in favor
> of Prosser, who now leads at 7,319. This total gets Prosser just over
> the 5%, under which the state will pay for a recount. However, there's
> a problem with these found votes; Nickolaus' math doesn't add up.
>
> It's my understanding that Microsoft Access does an automatic save
> while it's being used, but I have to question why any clerk is being
> allowed to keep votes only on her computer, refuses to share them on
> the county computers, and trusts her own inputting of numbers that she
> doesn't save, especially with her track record of criminal
> investigations and reprimands from county officials regarding the
> failure of security in her procedures. Kathy goes way back with the
> Republican Party, and this isn't her first go at electioneering, if you
> will, on behalf of the party. Kathy seems at best incompetent, but
> since all of her errors benefit only one party, it begs the question of
> whether or not she is engaging in fraudulent activities. In either
> case, I'm unclear as to why she has been entrusted with the votes of
> taxpaying citizens.
>
> To add to all of that, a friend of mine who happens to be an attorney
> did some math on the Wisconsin situation, and Nickolaus' numbers don't
> add up. He sent me the following breakdown, to which I've added
> editorial information. According to the 2010 census, there are 38,649
> living in Brookfield. Of these Male 48.4% Female 51.6%, Median Age 42.
>
> Most of the media has been focusing on the 38,649 number, which --
> given a 33% turnout over all -- would yield about the 14,000 votes
> reported. This makes sense, and certainly Kathy Nickolaus knows how to
> break up demographics having made the computer program that breaks
> apart voting trends in different counties for the Republican Party.
>
> But the voting age and over population for Brookfield is 73.2%. This
> yields a possible voting base of 28,291. Registered voters? Doesn't
> matter. Wisconsin allows folks to register on the day of the elections.
>
> So, let's assume all of the 28,291 were registered. The figures don't
> add up: Statewide turnout --and in the rest of Waukesha county -- was
> 33%. Even assuming that all 28,291 over the age of 18 were registered
> voters, that 33% turnout -- which was reported as very high -- would
> have yielded no more than 9,430 votes.
>
> But Kathy Nickalous reported 14,315 votes, a surprising 53% increase of
> a voting surge, for that one city -- over the rest of Wisconsin and
> from Wuukesha County -- from 33% to 50.5%
>
> And in Brookfield, at least 75% of that total had to choose incumbent
> David Prosser against 25% for challenger Joan Klopenberg to reach just
> beyond the .5% margin to avoid a mandatory recount.
>
> I'm sorry, but the places we were likely to see the most motivated
> voters were not in conservative areas; this is proven in the recall
> efforts, for example, as well as by the shifts in rural areas that went
> for Walker in 2010. Emily Mills reported for the Daily Isthmus:
>
> In fact, some of the strongest support for Kloppenburg came from
> places like rural Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas, and Iron Counties up
> north. In total, 32 counties straight-up went to Kloppenburg, and
> even in counties that favored Prosser, several did so in much
> smaller numbers than they'd done in the primaries, indicating a
> serious shift away from the incumbent in the wake of Walker's
> union-busting and the wave of protests.
>
> So, areas that went for Walker flipped to Kloppenburg and areas that
> went for Prosser had lower numbers than they did in the primaries.
> Voter enthusiasm on the conservative side was down. The most motivated
> voters are the people who are the most threatened by the anti-union
> bill, and those voters turned out to vote for Kloppenburg. So I can't
> buy this surge in voter turnout that is higher than any other county in
> Wisconsin.
>
> <end excerpt>
>
> Michael
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