> Interesting numbers Julio, although I am not sure if it is enough to
> compare just the GDP/Capita growth rates, not that I think you
> suggested that. I am quite curious to know what people think about
> this decoupling argument?
I am updating my course materials for the fall. So I just thought I'd share these figures with the list. You're right implying that they paint a very one-sided picture. But here's how Krugman put it in 2008:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/23/synchronized-sinking/
You can read my own reaction if you scroll down or press Control + F and then type "huato". I thought that, here, Krugman was misrepresenting Caballero's argument. Basically, the BRICS, burned by the experience of prior forex crises, piled up reserves and sovereign funds. Not that anybody can escape "systemic" risk, but the other type of risk got somewhat diversified away, since these countries weren't relying only on their commodities, geographic location, cheap labor, or whatever their comparative advantage. In retrospect, perhaps they piled up too much USD stuff.
You and others have argued for intra-3rd world financial arrangements that would escape the gravitational pull of the West. I think that this is now speeding up, to some extent. Russia, China, other ex Soviet republics, and to a lesser extent India and South Africa are getting into more ambitious deals with South America. (By the way, Venezuela could have done much better, if it hadn't been for their very orthodox reaction to the 2007-2008 crisis in the U.S. As a testimonial of how the old ways are ingrained, Chavez slashed the public budget unnecessarily. Mark Weisbrot wrote a sharp critique of this knee-jerk response, and gradually they came to their senses. Not saying because of Weisbrot's critique, perhaps coincidentally so.) Russia and China take Brazil most seriously, but politically Chavez, Morales, Correa, etc. are not to be discounted as they represent raw aspirations of the South American plebeian crowd, beyond the borders of their own countries. The long term relations Cuba built with Russia have come in handy in all this. We'll see how robust these initiatives are (and how they may weaken or strengthen) as/if the West's meltdown accelerates.