> My view is that the word "if" in the above sentence is unnecessary.
> Merkel is working very hard at it to make sure that I will turn out to
> be right.
Merkel and Sarkozy make a terrific team! :)
And then there is China and here is what I wrote to a friend
> a short while ago:
>
> "China's growth does not appear to be sustainable. Despite their
> efforts to balance their former export success (repeating of which is
> out of question today) with increased production for domestic
> consumption, Chinese people don't have the money to consume what is
> being produced and the rising inflation is eating away their ability
> to buy things. Furthermore, they are dealing with mega-projects rather
> than producing simple things for the consumption of the masses, some
> sort of megalomania, I guess. Asset bubbles everywhere, a ton of US
> Treasuries (meaning less money to spend on production and pay for
> domestic consumption) and an accelerating inflation. If things get
> really bad, we may see more Tiananmens. China does not look healthy to
> me. Brazil, I don't know, since I have not paid much attention to
> Brazil lately."
CEPAL's latest report (http://bit.ly/o2n8do) suggests to me that Brazil's domestic market is not expanding (if not actually shrinking) and that the driver of growth is primary production and exports. They are following very tight fiscal and monetary policies, which helps them maintain large forex inflows. They are kind of Wall Street darlings, for some reason. Political stability, which Lula's social policies contributed to enhance, give Brazil some breathing room for the time being. FWIW.