I thought the situation was unfolding as described but that seems to be incorrect. The protest numbers are growing. Attention is focused on Tahrir square where protesters are encircled but peaceful. In other areas there is violence and even deaths. Government buildings have been burned and the official ruling party offices have been destroyed. These quotes are from Al Jazeera live blog:
Wael Ghonim, the activist who was recently released from custody in Egypt, says
on Twitter that a policeman informed him that General Habib Ibrahim El Adly, the
former Interior Minister of Egypt, ordered the police to fire live bullets at
protesters.
An officer just called me to tell me: I escaped from the service after ElAdly
asked us to fire live bullets randomly on protesters. #Jan25
>
>
>7:18pm The situation seems to have heated up in Ismailiya, where protesters
>stormed a government building and set fire to the governor's car. AFP reports
>that the protesters, angry that their requests for better housing had been
>ignored, came from a "nearby slum" where they'd lived in "makeshift huts for 15
>years." Police, notes the agency, have "largely disappeared" from the town since
>the protests started more than two weeks ago.
>6:47pm There are reports of continuing crackdowns in Wadi al-Jadid.
>Attributing the information to Egyptian security officials, Reuters reports that
>several protesters suffered gunshot wounds and one was killed when 3,000
>protesters took to the streets.
>AFP news agency reportes three dead and 100 are wounded in the clashes that have
>been going on for two days. The protesters, said the report, retaliated:
>The furious mob responded by burning seven official buildings, including two
>police stations and a police barracks, a court house and the local headquarters
>of President Hosni Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party.
>>
>>
>>If the demonstrations grow larger on Friday the government will need to decide
>>whether they will make further concessions or start to crack down or just wait
>>and try to wear down the opposition over time. Mubarak seems to have become a
>>potent symbol to each side giving him an importance that he otherwise would not
>>have. The power situation would really not change that significantly if Mubarak
>>were to step aside but this might give momentum and encouragement to the
>>protesters that the establishment fears.
>>Cheers, k hanly.
----- Original Message ---- From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> To: lbo-talk <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org> Sent: Wed, February 9, 2011 9:29:53 AM Subject: [lbo-talk] how the regime is winning in Egypt
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ARTICLES/67351/joshua-stacher/egypts-democratic-mirage?page=show
Egypt's Democratic Mirage How Cairo’s Authoritarian Regime Is Adapting to Preserve Itself
Despite the tenacity, optimism, and blood of the protesters massed in Tahrir Square, Egypt's democratic window has probably already closed.
Contrary to the dominant media narrative, over the last ten days the Egyptian state has not experienced a regime breakdown. The protests have certainly rocked the system and have put Mubarak on his heels, but at no time has the uprising seriously threatened Egypt's regime. Although many of the protesters, foreign governments, and analysts have concentrated on the personality of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, those surrounding the embattled president, who make up the wider Egyptian regime, have made sure the state's viability was never in question. This is because the country's central institution, the military, which historically has influenced policy and commands near-monopolistic economic interests, has never balked.
...
This containment strategy has worked. By politically encircling the protesters, the regime prevented the conflict from extending beyond its grasp. With the protesters caught between regime-engineered violence and regime-manufactured safety, the cabinet generals remained firmly in control of the situation.
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