> My guess is that we're going to have a shitty economy for years, but
> not an outright recession.
The recession's been over for 23 months. The average postwar recovery lasted 59 months. That would leave us with three years until the next recession.
How much employment growth until then? So far, the employment rate has *fallen* by a percentage point since the *end* of the recession. It's now lower than its 2010 average. So judging by current trends, we'll have double-digit unemployment again within a few years.
SA