>Once you allow for the possibility that demo turnout was falling in
>response to the Iraq war losing mass salience (rather than from the
>Obama Effect), it makes perfect sense that it would be the more
>mainstream Dem identifiers who would drop away and the more
>hard-core third-party types who would keep turning out.
How do you separate out "mass salience" from the Obama effect. If Dem antiwar demonstrators thought of Obama as a peace candidate, then it makes just as much "perfect sense" that they would think the job was done when Obama was elected.