Before you change the subject, this is worth bringing up, if only to scare Ferenc more:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/16/595271/la-conduit-fidential/
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-irs-conduit-20110616,0,6285622.story
https://self-evident.org/?p=877
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Now:
> what do people think the probability of Greece defaulting is?
>
> I'd say 30.
In these days of CDS, it's controversial what this even means :-)
I think a more interesting question is: what's the probability of a US default?
/jordan