[lbo-talk] catastrophy II

Jordan Hayes jmhayes at j-o-r-d-a-n.com
Wed Mar 16 18:58:14 PDT 2011


Dissenting Wren says:


> I think James Hansen has done a good job of showing the
> flaw in Lovins' "soft-energy path": that no combination
> of these technologies will create the reliable base load
> capacity to run an electrical grid.

Lovins steps out on a ledge to postulate that it's the grid itself that is the problem. The idea that we have a small number of large generators, to which we feed a significant amount of the generation to support transmission, could really be leading people like Hansen to the wrong conclusion.

Is he right? Unclear.

Hansen is not beyond hand-waiving, but I agree with his basic premise -- that we're very far from having a choice of solutions, let alone even one -- enough not to bother tearing into his logic or conclusions. Here's a decent one if you're interested:

http://scienceblogs.com/islandofdoubt/2010/01/james_hansen_says_goodbye_to_s.php


> So, that base load capacity is going to be based largely
> on either nuclear or coal.

This gets back to my earlier point: regardless of what you think about soft-energy paths, I think he makes a very compelling case that nuclear is not the answer. It doesn't make economic sense, and in a world where economic interests often trump even common sense and rationality, it seems unlikely that we'll be seeing a nuclear "solution" any time soon.


> Where does that leave us?

It's an excellent question. I'm not sure we'll solve it here. But I think we can put to bed the idea that nuclear is better than coal.

We do need to find something better than coal. It's just not nuclear.

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This also answers the earlier question about why the US continues to push on /jordan



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