On Wed, Jan 4, 2006 at 2:40 AM, Chuck Grimes <c123grimes at att.net> wrote:
>
> Below is an NRC report table with calculated data of worst case
> for nuclear power plants around the US, published in 1982.
>
> http://www.ccnr.org/crac.html
>
> CRAC stands for calculation of reactor accident consequences. Their idea of
> worse case is core meltdown and breech,
>
> For Diablo Canyon it lists Peak Early Fatalities 10,000. Peak Early injuries
> 11,000. Peak Deaths from Cancer 12,000. Property Damage 155-8 billion. There
> are two units at this location, so if they both went up you double those
> figures. For NYC you want to look at the figures for the Indian plants,
> which are 46,000 deaths per unit
>
> San Luis has since undergone a lot of development so the population is
> larger and of course the costs are larger.
>
> I am not sure what to say about this report. 1982 was still within some
> reasonable level of trust in the science behind it. In other words the NRC
> was not as heavily politicized and seemed more like a real regulatory
> agency. I am not sure I would trust anything coming out of the US
> government, especially its environmental and nuclear sciences since the
> Clinton administration. After Bush II and Obama... forget it.
>
> This report is posted with other reports by Canadian Coalition for Nuclear
> Responsibility. Their main directory is here:
>
> http://www.ccnr.org/index.html
>
> Below is from a different report:
>
> ``2.11 HOW LIKELY IS A CORE MELT ACCIDENT?
>
> The Reactor Safety Study carefully examined the various paths leading to
> core melt. Using methods developed in recent years for estimating the
> likelihood of such accidents, a probability of occurrence was determined for
> each core melt accident identified. These probabilities were combined to
> obtain the total probability of melting the core.
>
> The value obtained was about one in 20,000 per reactor per year. With 100
> reactors operating, as is anticipated for the U.S. by about 1980, this means
> that the chance for one such accident is one in 200 per year [or about 1 in
> 10 over a period of 20 years].''
>
> http://www.ccnr.org/rasmussen.html#2.11
>
> The above is an NRC report from 1974, or the Rasmussen Report, titled
> Reactor Safety Study, (WASH-1400). I think it was the planning study with
> estimates back in the development era for Diablo and the next generation of
> reactors.
>
> Diablo 1 was commissioned 1985, Diablo 2 1986. Considering the report above,
> I assume their original operating license expired in twenty years 2005-6 and
> they got license extensions to 2024-5, i.e. another twenty years. According
> PG&E Diablo they are now starting a new license extension with the NRC.
>
> CG
>
>
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