I think a lot of the discussion can be cut short if we can get people to accompany the high rhetoric of anti-imperialism and liberty with some cold hard cash. To that end, how much money are you willing to put towards the following outcomes (or their opposite outcomes):
1. Non-Arab ground forces will be deployed in large numbers: yes [$ ], no [$ ] 2. The US will occupy Libya, as it has Iraq: yes [$ ], no [$ ] 3. The country will be partitioned: yes [$ ], no [$ ] 4. 1 year on civilian death by UNSC/NATO will be >= [X]: yes [$ ], no [$ ] 5. Alternate elites will replace Gaddafi with no change: yes [$ ], no [$ ]
My own answers:
1. Non-Arab ground forces will be deployed in large numbers: yes [$ ], no [$5] 2. The US will occupy Libya, as it has Iraq: yes [$ ], no [$5] 3. The country will be partitioned: yes [$ ], no [$3] 4. 1 year on civilian death by UNSC/NATO will be >= [X]: yes [$ ], no [$2] 5. Alternate elites will replace Gaddafi with no change: yes [$5], no [$ ]
#4 (where X = people killed by Gaddafi in this unrest)
Of course the one crucial thing we will not be able to verify is what might have happened without the UNSC intervention. So maybe this exercise won’t really help…
—ravi