Sounds good to me. The thing is, I am not being optimistic… it’s just that I think Obama is too wimpy to be a good imperialist (to borrow a word that’s doing the rounds, though I am not quite sure what it means, any more — not being sarcastic, I just need to read more of this stuff to figure it out). His masters, the army brass, etc, no doubt have different desires, but nevertheless…
I have been trying to keep up with the arguments and at this point, at least on matters of fact, Marv sounds more convincing to me (of course ideological analysis, which seems to be the line of argument against him, should carry some weight too; but see above regarding my confusion about “imperialism”). What that means to me is that this is not like Iraq in that resistance to the invasion will be active from early on, a civil war based on existing group animosities will break out, etc. Rather, IM-inexpert-HO, this all points (in the probable worst case) to a shuffling of the deck with more violence than was required for Mubarak, a new elite, large oil contracts and concessions, and minor nods to those elements of the rebellion that are grassroots/populist.
I hope it was clear that I was kidding with my post about putting money behind positions/claims! But I will always be happy to buy beers for all, should outcomes turn out better than I predicted, or donate the money to Amnesty should thing turn out more gruesome (as Miles appropriately called it).
Speaking of buying beers, Joe is in Gaza (howdy Joe!), so Michael [Pollak], how about we round up the rest for a dinner (I think the chance of roping in LF attending list eminences has passed? and I am still crushed from Carrol having stood us up last year!) in the next week or two? Dr. Henwood, please take note of the lack of LOLCats lingo. Julio? Shane? Others?
—ravi