Among likely explainations: the possibility that international public opinion will force sanctions that will disrupt oil market, the possibility that Gaddafi remaining in power via massacre will lead to deep underground insurgency that disrupts oil productions, the possibility of an increase in the already serious Libyan refugee crisis. That is why a quick imperialist victory would be in the interests of the Libyan people: because the rebels intentions are not threatening to imperialism, there would be no strong reason for an occupation. Because the rebels public demands are for a decent neoliberal democracy with a few minor social democratic concessions, they would likely be a hell of a lot better for the Libyan people than a brutal neo-liberal dictator who long ago dropped all socialist or social-democratic concessions and has been carrying out IMF austerity without mitigation. If a quick victory is not what happens, then I suspect things will turn very bad indeed, even worse than the massacre that would follow a Gaddafi victory. I'd really be curious why Juan Cole thinks this kind of scenario is unlikely. Do you think you might want to invite him on your program and ask him?
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