I have not followed the campaign very closely but I don't remember any point in time when Le Pen's poll numbers were higher than Sarkozy's.
Also, I don't think Mélenchon managed to get much of the working class vote. It seems to me that what he got was the active parts of all the trotskyist groups who had succeeded in getting a small share of the vote in earlier elections. This time, they were all down to barely above 1%, vs 5% each a few years back. In fact, Mélenchon's 11% is pretty much exactly what the Communists and the Trotskyists all together made in 2007 or 2002.
Mélenchon was a bit shocked at not having gathered more than that. But it is quite a feat anyway, because he started at 4-5% in the polls, his group did not exists 4 years ago, and he managed to convince the Communist Party to ally with 2 other smaller groups. I'm not sure his Left Front will be able to get much seats in the coming general elections though. We'll see.
Back to Sarkozy, I am pretty convinced that when he is out of the picture, his party, the UMP, will not manage to keep any consistency and will split (if not formally at least in terms of alliance at the general elections) into a hard right, a "gaulist" right and a soft-center right. Some will ally with the National Front, some with the Socialists. I think it won't take much before the UMP is gone from the picture altogether. With the Socialists holding the Senate (with the Greens), the Presidency and soon the National Assembly, and with Mélenchon's Left Front pushing on the left side, we're hopefully going to see some interesting things in France in the coming months.
JC
On Apr 23, 2012, at 11:38 PM, Shane Mage wrote:
>
> On Apr 23, 2012, at 9:39 AM, brandelune at gmail.com wrote:
>
>> If you need an update on the first round, check this article:
>>
>> http://www.opendemocracy.net/philippe-marli%C3%A8re/23-april-2012-nicolas-sarkozy-fights-for-his-political-life
>
> I disagree with this statement:
> "Sarkozy, the right-wing candidate, has ended his presidential term with an electoral disaster. Over the past few weeks, he has constructed a political Frankenstein, whose first name is Marine. Mrs Le Pen has demonstrated time and again during the campaign that the Front National remains the same xenophobic party, always intent on polarising voters with race politics: from halal meat to immigration or policies of “national preference”, the FN continues to play to the traditional tune of the old extreme-right. Le Pen can be grateful to Sarkozy. His very right-wing campaign was Le Pen’s stepping stone for her own success."
>
> I believe that the "Buisson strategy" was designed and succeeded against Le Pen. By running a hard-right campaign on the FN's traditional anti-immigrant themes Sarkozy, who at one point actually had lower poll numbers than Marine, took aim at the FN's traditional base. It was successful in forcing Marine to return to the traditional FN campaign in order to protect her base, and thus cut her off from the workingclass vote that she was appealing to with her denunciations of austerity, "crony capitalism," and "Europe." At the high point of her campaign (the rhetorical high point of the whole campaign), when Sarkozy increased VAT in order to reduce corporate social-security contributions and called it a VAT sociale, Marine immediately denounced it as a "VAT patronale." From there, the FN campaign slid back down the right side of the hill, as Buisson-Sarkozy intended, and her working-class vote slipped back to Mélenchon. So Sarkozy avoided the humiliation of a third-place finish. But, as Marliere recognizes, Sarko remains in a terrible fix, and Marline will do her best (and she's the best rhetorician as well as the best looking of all the candidates) to make sure he loses. Le Pen père's response to the very first reported results: "Sarkozy est battu!" (with a broad smile).