There's no way to answer your question ("which one of them is right?") because they are both making, along with Brad Delong and others, some good points back and forth. It's not a set of position papers.
If you'd like to pick one of the 30+ points in the last two hours and determine truth value, go right ahead. Or was that your attempt in the Subject: line? If so, you'll have to be more clear what you're asking.
/jordan