In this case the proposed time, 18 months is not outrageous by historical standards. By "long way" I was referring not to time, but to the probability that something will be discovered that makes production more difficult than anticipated or that makes life span shorter or something on those lines.
Some breakthrough that will give us inexpensive batteries suitable for
auto and utility storage has been anticipated for decades. The
barriers are not theoretical but a matter of implementation. So when
their is a PR announcement from people who know what they are doing
and have backing from a major corporation that they have made a
breakthrough that means they will ship in 18 months, that is a reason
for skeptical optimism. Optimism because there is not absolute reason
it can't be true, skepticism, because there are a lot of ways this
kind of thing can go wrong, plus the involvement of PR professionals
means that already known obstacles could have been glossed in the
announcement. (Sorry PR people, but omitting material facts is not
uncommon in your profession. )
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> ...
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> Doesn't it seem as if the delay from prototype to commercial production, not just in energy but in other fields like biotech and transportation, has increased over time? Imagine if at the turn of the century we had these sorts of lags following the introduction of aeronautics, cinema, vaccines, and nuclear physics.
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> Notice that any article on a new medical breakthrough ends with a statement to the effect that - scientists say we're a long way from bringing this treatment to market or even beginning clinical trials. My question is: why? Why does it take decades to get a new subway or high-speed rail-line built in the U.S., when if anything they should be constructed more quickly given modern productivity levels? We act as if our lifespans are measured in centuries the way we put off advances for decades to ensure 100% safety and reliability.
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> I think the critique of capitalism that isn't being made is that, it really doesn't seem to be that innovative anymore, except in information technology. In fact, notice how the word "technology" has been hijacked by one sub-branch of the field, namely computers, mobile devices, and the Internet. The tacit admission is that other areas of technology are developing so slowly they no longer deserve to be dignified by the word. Instead we often hear the opposite of there being too little progress: that capitalism is too concentrated on growth and that we need to move to a sustainable, low or zero growth economy. The flip side is that socialism wasn't very innovative either, which allowed it to be pushed over like a card castle.
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