[lbo-talk] So who decides which abortions are "abhorrent"?

Somebody Somebody philos_case at yahoo.com
Mon Feb 27 15:02:24 PST 2012


Shane: From a social point of view, in an (at present) grossly
> overpopulated
> country like India suffering from an (at present) grossly excessive
> rate of population growth, female-selective abortion is by far and
> away the most practical way by which the people, on their own, can
> deal with that problem (given the fertility rate, the rate of
> population growth is a monotonic function of the reproductive-age sex
> ratio).

....

With respect, this information is outdated.

The current fertility rate in India is 2.6 children per woman. This is compared to a fertility rate of almost 6 in 1960. Compare these figures to the U.S. fertility rate - 2.06.

To put it bluntly, Indian women are having children at rates much closer to that of the U.S. today than to those of India just a couple generations ago.

Because population growth lags behind fertility rate declines (because the older cohort survives even as their 2 or so children survive and have children of their own), the population will continue to grow for decades more, but by mid-century India will inevitably see a plateauing in total population as the full effects of the dramatic decline in fertility rates that have already occurred take effect. So abortion is not a major solution for India because continued population growth (less than 1.4% per year) is no longer because women are having many children but because there are many women of prime reproductive age, a phenomenon called population momentum.

The decline in fertility rates in countries like India and Bangladesh (which actually has an even lower rate than India) and in fact in most countries of the global south is one of the extraordinary achievements of the modern age. For most of human history women had 6, 7, or even 8 children, many of whom died in infancy and childhood. The number of countries with fertility rates that high, even in Sub-Saharan Africa (where fertility is also in rapid decline), is rapidly dwindling. The world will converge at low fertility rates and already substantially has.



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