[lbo-talk] The Myth of Japan?s Failure - NYTimes.com

// ravi ravi at platosbeard.org
Tue Jan 10 09:52:38 PST 2012


On Jan 10, 2012, at 12:25 PM, Jordan Hayes wrote:
> Ravi asks:
>
>> Who can afford to just sit around for months on end
>> saying “Shit, sure would like a job”? [and not actually look
>> for one]
>
> The Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate in the US is about 64% these days; that means that 1:3 working-age-able-to-work people don't actually have a job. Do all of them "want" jobs? Clearly not. Should some of them who want jobs in an abstract way but haven't actually actively looked for one be counted in the statistic of "long-term unemployed" ...?
>
> Where would you draw the line instead? 18 months? 3 years?
>

My doubt is not so much about where to draw the line but what I catch with that line i.e., is this a significant statistic to gather? Perhaps there are two earner families with above median earnings for one spouse where the other spouse drops in and out of the workforce. Such a person might answer “yes” on “want a job”, but not really be looking for one at all. Is this (and similar cases) a statistical significant number? Or is it more the case that if someone answers “yes” on “want a job” and “no” on “tried to find one last year”, then they have pretty much given up on finding a job based on the job search experience from previous years/months? If such is the case, then separating out this segment serves to demonise them, no?

Anecdote: back in the late 90s I worked with a junior tech person who was fairly competent at systems administration tasks. He had no background in computer science, but with the decent pay of the IT job, decided to join a community college and learn some programming and so on. Was trying to work his way up the ladder. Then the .com bust happened, he lost his job, he couldn’t continue college. For the next year and more he frantically looked for jobs in IT. Went to job fairs. Posted on Monster, HotJobs, contacted recruiters, spread his resume among friends. No luck. Went back to live with his parents. I think for the next year or two he pretty much gave up on finding a job. Eventually he resurfaced in the workforce, but in the service industry working in a restaurant for a fraction of his IT pay. It’s possible he might have landed such a job in the year he abandoned hope of getting an IT job and stopped searching, but I am not sure where the value lies in assigning a distinct number and characterisation to him and those sharing his lot.

—ravi



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