On 2012-06-12, at 9:20 AM, Robert Naiman wrote:
> ...1) instead of
> paying some bills in Euros and others in scrip, the government could
> pay all its bills in a mix of Euros and scrip, and say, if you don't
> accept e.g. 10% scrip, you won't get any Euros from us; 2) the
> government can accept scrip as payment of taxes, which would guarantee
> that the scrip retains value, since when it comes to tax time, it can
> replace Euros at the same rate as when it was issued; and 3) the
> government can raise scrip-payable taxes to vacuum up scrip.
Yes, but the Economist has some reason to reassure itself that the process still has some way to go and that a Grexit is not imminent even if Syriza wins, as I earnestly hope it does. This is because it's very unlikely Syriza will be able to form a majority government, even if it is first past the post and wins a bonus of 50 seats under Greece's cockamamie electoral system. So it will almost certainly have to rely on the Democratic Left (DINAR), a right-wing split from Syriza. DINAR, like PASOK and the conservative New Democracy, is adamantly opposed to Syriza's intention to declare a unilateral debt moratorium, and wants to instead seek an easing of the impossible terms imposed on the Greeks by the EC, ECB, and IMF. It might even make PASOK's participation in a coalition government a precondition of its own. The Greek CP (KKE), despite its sectarian stance towards Syriza, would almost certainly support a debt moratorium and any other radical initiatives of a Syriza government, but it is unlikely to have enough seats to sustain the latter in power in any confrontation with the Democratic Left on this issue.
So it may well become a question of whether Tsipras "blinks", as the Economist put it, in the face of the formidable internal and external pressures which will be directed against the new government, or whether he and his comrades admirably continue to respond to and encourage the mass radicalization from below, which is being driven especially by the trade unions and desperate unemployed youth. As Reuters acknowledged today in a report on the Greek elections, "SYRIZA briefly moderated its anti-bailout message after May 6, but quickly went back on the offensive. Pollsters said that with every aggressive statement, ratings went up."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/12/us-greece-campaign-idUSBRE85B0N720120612
Here is what the last poll permitted to be published before the election is projecting:
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_14241_01/06/2012_444874