On 2012-11-26, at 2:19 PM, andie_nachgeborenen wrote:
> Wow!
>
> Sent from my iPad
>
> On Nov 26, 2012, at 1:12 PM, 123hop at comcast.net wrote:
>
>> Catalonia secedes. This is a fascinating development. If the nation state enslaves its people through austerity programs, this seems one way to cancel the debts: dissolve the state.
>>
>> http://rt.com/news/catalonia-president-wins-votes-537/
Sorry to dampen spirits, but Catalonia is still a long way from secession. It has returned to office Premier Arturo Mas' centre-right Convergència i Unió (CiU) party which called the election not to secede, but to secure a mandate for a a Catalan referendum on independence sometime in the future. The threat of a referendum has been widely seen as a negotiating ploy by Mas to wrest more taxing power from Spanish premier Mario Rajoy's central government. Mas has been negotiating with little success for a a greater share of Catalan tax revenues which presently go to Madrid for transfer to Spain's poorer regions.
But the CiU does not have enough seats to govern on its own, and will likely have to rely on the centre-left Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya party (ERC) for support. The ERC is committed to independence for Catalonia, and views Mas' recent conversion to the cause with great suspicion. It is difficult to see how the two parties will be able to agree on the wording for a referendum. If the long campaign for Quebec independence and the divisions between "soft" and "hard" separatists are any guide, Mas will likely push for greater autonomy and some form of continued association with the Spanish state rather than full independence. That may be more in tune with the the majority of nationalist Catalans who fear being completely cut off from Spain and the EU.
This is the first hurdle. The second is that the Rajoy government says it will never permit an "illegal" referendum prohibited by the Spanish constitution, much less negotiate within that framework if one succeeds. Some reactionary elements of the Spanish officer corps have even muttered darkly about putting down the movement for Catalan independence by force. But the central government has ceded tax authority to the Basques similar to what the Catalans are demanding, so when push comes to shove, it could be more flexible than it presently appears.
The third hurdle is whether the EU would admit an independent Catalonia, were it ever to get that far. The Spanish government has further stated it would exercise its veto right under the EU constitution to block a Catalan bid for membership. Pro-independence Catalans are optimistic the European multinationals who value their access to the Catalan market would apply pressure for it to somehow remain within the EU fold. Meanwhile, Catalonia's large corporations who do business in Spain and Europe are less receptive to independence than its small business sector which senses opportunities in a more protected Catalan market.
So still very much in early innings.