[lbo-talk] [Pen-l] The economics of Scottish independence

Robert Naiman naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
Sat Sep 6 09:50:27 PDT 2014


Thanks for sharing this, I found it quite fascinating.

One thing that struck me while reading this: according to this account, a bunch of questions are now joined with the Scottish electorate that are not ordinarily joined with any electorate: what kind of currency should we have? what kind of banking system should we have? what model should we adopt for encouraging investment? how should we try to protect ourselves from global financial crises? If becoming "independent" would expose us to greater risk of becoming Ireland or Iceland, would that really be a plus, even on autonomy grounds, let alone economic grounds?

If having a referendum on "independence" creates an opportunity to engage the electorate in a passionate and detailed debate about such questions, maybe the Scots and others should have independence referenda more often. Maybe the ideal outcome from a "robust democracy" point of view would be for the referendum vote to be close to a tie, to maintain pressure and tension in all directions, and ensure that these questions will soon be revisited.

Robert Naiman Policy Director Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org naiman at justforeignpolicy.org (202) 448-2898 x1

On Sat, Sep 6, 2014 at 9:27 AM, Marv Gandall <marvgand2 at gmail.com> wrote:


> Below a link to a detailed analysis by the British Marxist economist
> Michael Roberts of the economic challenges which would face an independent
> Scotland if it votes to secede from the UK on September 18th. Roberts
> concludes that "at best, the majority of the Scottish people will find
> little difference under Holyrood than under Westminster and it could be
> worse if a global crisis erupts again. Scotland as a small economy,
> dependent on multinationals for investment, still dominated by British
> banks and the City of London and without control of its own currency or
> interest rates, could face a much bigger hit than elsewhere in terms of
> incomes and unemployment."
>
> But as Roberts also notes, “the decision on independence is not just a
> question of the economy and living standards". The political consequences
> of such a dramatic rupture with the status quo in Scotland could be far
> reaching - not only on independence struggles in Catalonia and elsewhere,
> but as encouragement to a wide range of other social movements everywhere.
>
> http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2014/09/04/scotland-yes-or-no/
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