http://forward.com/opinion/320862/why-the-only-two-choices-in-syria-are-bad-and-worse/
Arguably, it's good for both Israel and Hizbullah, in the sense of re-stabilizing the post-2006 Israel-Hizbullah deal, thereby decreasing the likelihood of war between Israel and Hizbullah in the future.
Robert Naiman Policy Director Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org naiman at justforeignpolicy.org (202) 448-2898 x1
On Sun, Oct 11, 2015 at 11:42 AM, Marv Gandall <marvgand2 at gmail.com> wrote:
> Russia’s military intervention in Syria is aimed at stabilizing the region
> and may benefit Israel more than Iran, Hezbollah, or the Assad regime,
> according to an article by Beirut-based journalist Nicholas Noe writing in
> Foreign Affairs.
>
> What’s intriguing about Noe’s analysis is that he has close ties to
> Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who have argued the opposite:
> that Russia’s more forceful entry into the conflict will tilt the Middle
> East power balance in favour of Iran and its Shia allies and away from the
> US and Israel and their allied pro-Western regimes. Many Western
> commentators, fearful of that development, share this view.
>
> But Noe argues (correctly, IMO) that the intervention is aimed at halting
> the advance of the various Sunni militias backed by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf
> states, and Turkey - creating the conditions for a peace settlement which
> results in some form of power-sharing between the Assad regime and the
> rebels. Beyond that, “Russia maintains relatively close ties with Israel,
> and has little interest in aiding Iran and Hezbollah’s anti-Zionist agenda”.
>
> In fact, Russia is more likely to use its influence to restrain their
> efforts to develop a military counter-weight to the Israelis - in which
> case, it will may prove to be a more effective interlocutor than than the
> US, which is deeply distrusted by the Iranians, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the
> various Shia militias in the region. Noe thinks “Israel will now be able to
> turn to a powerful and sympathetic contact at the center of the pro-Assad
> coalition should the conflict begin to pose a more severe threat to Israeli
> interests.”
>
>
> https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/israel/2015-10-03/strange-bedfellows-syria
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