[lbo-talk] Fwd: The next recession

[Rob Hoveman]

In short, different theories of crisis can imply different economic and political solutions. 
To oversimplify, if you see crises as a cosequence of a tendency for the rate of profit to fall as living labour, the source of new surplus value, is displaced by investment in constant capital, the product of past or dead labour, which itself is the consequence of the relentless pursuit of higher productivity to give competing capitals competitive advantage, then you will be more sceptical of the possibility of reforming capitalism to make it work better. Crises are built into the heart of capitalism itself.
If instead you believe crises are a product of a lack of consuming power of the working class, or disproportionalities between different sectors of the economy, or the dominance of unregulated finance, then you will be more open to the idea that reforms of various degrees of radicalism may radically improve the situation. 
That is one way of looking at the situation. Of course those who reject the Law of the Tendency of the Rate of Profit to Fall (LTRPF) as logically or empirically flawed may still believe that capitalist crises are the product of features that are central to capitalism and it therefore, ultimately, needs to be destroyed as it can't be reformed. The LTRPF theorists are sceptical that other theories of capitalist crisis do that. 
Regardless of the political divisions, there is the question of truth, although this tends to get pretty mixed up with the political debate between reform and revolution. Defenders of the LTRPF like Kliman and Roberts argue it is both logically coherent and empirically verified. Critics argue the opposite. These are very difficult issues to resolve. Personally I find many of Andrew Kliman's arguments in Reclaiming Marx's Capital very convincing and Michael Roberts' blog has a continuous wealth of information seeking to back up the LTRPF framework with empirical analysis.
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  On Sat, 30 Jan, 2016 at 4:17 pm, Marv Gandall<marvgand2 at gmail.com> wrote:   For example, Charles, here’s a forceful criticism of Roberts, Kliman ( not a Trotskyist), and other FROP theorists by Michel Huddon published by the magazine of the Trotskyist FI. So the political lines all cross on this issue. Frankly, if someone could explain to me the immediate practical implications of these conflicting crisis theories, I’d be grateful. Otherwise, the debate is mainly scholastic.

http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article1894


> Begin forwarded message:
> 
> From: Marv Gandall <marvgand2 at gmail.com>
> Subject: Re: [lbo-talk] The next recession
> Date: January 29, 2016 at 7:48:41 PM PST
> To: LBO <lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org>
> 
> Is this a Trotskyist-Stalinist thing? First I’ve heard the debate characterized that way. There are differences between Trotskyists over this question and between Marxist economists outside the CP and Trotskyist traditions.
> 
> 
>> On Jan 29, 2016, at 4:22 PM, Charles Brown <cb31450 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> 
>> You know : law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall causes recessions like Trotskyists say not the restricted consumption of the masses like Stalinists say . So, invest, give the capitalists money , not consumers. 
>> 
>> Sent from my iPhone
>> 
>>> On Jan 29, 2016, at 2:45 PM, "JOANNA A." <123hop at comcast.net> wrote:
>>> 
>>> It's investment, not consumption that drives an economy? Really? 
>>> 
>>> j 
>>> 
>>> ----- Original Message ----- 
>>> Here’s Michael Roberts’ latest, surveying the global economic landscape in light of a stream of data released in recent days and earlier this month by governments, central banks, and international agencies. 
>>> 
>>> https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2016/01/29/the-global-gdp-story/#respond 
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