[lbo-talk] [pen-l] Optimistic about China

Marv Gandall marvgand2 at gmail.com
Thu May 12 13:55:18 PDT 2016



> On May 12, 2016, at 10:59 AM, charles1848 <charles1848 at sbcglobal.net> wrote:
>
> On the other hand, a recent survey reported that half of college graduates had not lined up jobs by the end of April, a disappointing figure.
>
> If construction in the bloated real estate sector slows, migrant workers who do most of the work will suffer, and they do not move easily into most "service" jobs.
>
> The article is based on a Keynesian framework that believes demand, especially consumer demand, is a basic cause of economic ups and downs.Debts in China have soared. The government can try to temper the rise smoothly, and it might succeed. Nonetheless, the problems of capital accumulation, which dominates the economy, will make themselves felt. The timing cannot be predicted, but a reliance on recent consumer behavior is rather unreliable.

I don’t disagree. It seems to me the big question is whether a threatened financial crash will bring down the economy. The incidence of household indebtedness and exposure to real estate and financial assets is much lower in China than it was in the US and Europe when the bubbles burst there, so the economic impact may not be as generalized. There’s also greater latitude for state intervention,



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