[lbo-talk] Soybeans & today's GDP report

Eugene Coyle e.coyle at me.com
Fri Jan 27 09:21:19 PST 2017

First paragraphs from WSJ article:

Live by the bean, die by the bean.

When the U.S. gross domestic product spiked up in last year’s third quarter, a lot of folks quickly noticed one outlier that had skewed the results: a surge in soybean exports. Driven by record harvests and surging demand from China, soybean exports on their own added about 1% to GDP growth. This was either not recognized by most observers, or dismissed. The meme was that the economy was picking up speed, and good times were returning,

They’re paying attention this morning. Fourth-quarter GDP fell back into its familiar rut, rising only 1.9%, below even the modest Street expectations of 2.2%. For the full year, GDP grew only 1.6%, down from the 2.6% growth rate recorded in 2015. At the time of the third-quarter GDP report, we said that excluding the soybean spike, the long-term growth rate was still around 1.5%. This morning’s report bears that out.

full at: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/01/27/gdp-falls-back-into-rut-as-soybean-surge-unwinds/

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