[lbo-talk] Is the US economy at full potential output?

Eugene Coyle e.coyle at me.com
Wed Nov 29 14:03:04 PST 2017


The Congressional Budget Office, as reported in the WSJ, says the US is producing at the maximum sustainable level of output.


> WASHINGTON—The U.S. economy is running at its full potential for the first time in a decade, a new milestone for an expansion now in its ninth year.
>
> Total economic output in the third quarter was slightly above the maximum sustainable level of output as estimated by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The full WSJ story is here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gdp-growth-revised-up-to-3-3-rate-in-third-quarter-1511962566.

This, IMO, is ridiculous. I see slack in the US economy.

Employers have been saying for months that “we can’t find workers.” But employers often make that assertion. I can remember hearing it since 1950, when machinists and especially tool and die makers were the shortage. Labor force participation is down, car manufacturers spend a lot on discounts/ cash back, dentists are scrambling for cavities.

Economists are quoted in the WSJ agreeing with the report, but one added


> Ms. Bovino said the recent closure of the output gap is “a bit misleading.”
>
> ”Yes, we did reach the U.S. economy’s potential growth rate, but in part for the wrong reason. We’ve moved the goal post,” she said.
>

Ms Beth Ann. Bovino is chief U.S. economist at S&P Global Ratings.

Gene



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