The world on fire
THE 20th century is the hottest for at least a
millennium, scientists said yesterday, amid
concern that the new finding is evidence of
global warming caused by man-made pollution.
Phil Jones, of the University of East Anglia, said
that a study of tree rings, ice cores, corals and
historical records from Europe and China going
back 1,000 years had been unable to find a
hotter century. His findings come in the wake of
results released by Al Gore, the US
Vice-President, that July was the hottest month
since records began.
Dr Jones, a scientist and meteorologist, said:
"Temperatures this century are on average two
tenths of a degree [centigrade] warmer than
between 1001 and 1100." He said that the
increases might not appear dramatic but that the
difference between the last Ice Age and now
was only 4C.
There was growing concern among scientists
that computer forecasts of how global warming
might affect the world were starting to be
realised. The forecasts predict that, unless
urgent action is taken to cut back on pollution
from burning fossil fuels, temperatures globally
will rise by up to 1.5C by 2050.
Dr Jones, whose findings are published in the
current edition of The Holocene, said that the
record-breaking heatwave in the southern
American states, where temperatures have
stayed above 37C for a month, was probably
due to El Niño. This natural climatic event - a
shift in the currents of warm waters across the
Pacific, which can happen several times a
decade - has played a key role in the droughts in
America and elsewhere, and floods in Asia.
"But if the average global temperatures shift up
by 1.5C, then what you see now in Texas will
become normal," said Dr Jones.
The findings on July were compiled by the US
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, based on scientific
measurements worldwide. Mr Gore linked them
with man-made global warming.
Dr Jones said that some of the extreme weather
witnessed this year could become commonplace
in the next century. Scientists forecast that the
floods afflicting China and elsewhere will also
become more frequent as the weather becomes
more violent and unpredictable.
Greater wind speeds are also forecast, making
buildings more vunerable and whipping up the
seas around vulnerable coastlines such as East
Anglia and low-lying islands such as the
Maldives. Diseases such as malaria are likely to
spread.
In some parts of the world, where agriculture is
on the margins, or where billions live along river
plains increasingly vulnerable to flash floods, the
effect of rising temperatures would be
disastrous. Some experts have predicted a sharp
increase in environmental refugees and the
creation of a "fortress West" to keep these
billions of displaced and hungry people at bay.
Studies by the Government have found that
Britain's climate might in some ways resemble
the Loire Valley next century. Other studies,
reported recently in Nature, indicate that
droughts could become more severe here.
Annual rainfall is unlikely to change, but most of
it may fall over a handful of days in
monsoon-like storms. Much of this will be
washed away, off parched land, and out to sea
before it has a chance to penetrate and be stored
underground or in reservoirs.
Research on behalf of the Government by
another group at the University of East Anglia
found that grassland and forest fires would
increase dramatically in Britain with rising
temperatures. During the hot summer of 1995,
such fires rose by 54 per cent.
An average temperature rise of 1C would also
lead to 7,000 fewer deaths a year, mainly
because of milder winters. But cases of food
poisoning would rise by 5 per cent, or 4,000.
In addition, retailers lost £383 million of
business in 1995, mainly because of a sharp
decline in clothes sales - only partly offset by an
increase in beer and fruit sales. The transport
sector lost £16 million of business after heat
damage to roads and slower train speeds
because of fires and buckling track. The hot
weather cost agriculture £180 million, mainly
because of losses in livestock and at fish farms.
However, Britain could equally become like
Siberia. Some scientists claim that the Gulf
Stream, which keeps Britain ice-free, will switch
south if global warming becomes a reality.
The world on fire: hit by the heat in 1998
July is the hottest month globally since official
records began 118 years ago. 1998 is set to be
hottest year for 1,000 years. 1990s is the hottest
decade in 600 years.
1. AUSTRALIA: Warmer sea temperatures and
freshwater run-off from torrential inland storms
trigger widespread destruction of Queensland's
coral reef.
2. AMERICA: Moist mild winter triggers a
spring and summer invasion of grasshoppers in
Nevada and Arizona covering roads and causing
car crashes. Texas, Florida, Oklahoma and
southern states endure scorching heat.
Temperatures in Dallas 37.6C (100F) for a
month.
3. CHINA: Howling, cyclonic dust storms in
April ripped up trees, knock out power supplies
and send rocks flying through windows in
Xinijang province. In Mongolia, 9,000 cattle are
killed and 1,000 people made homeless.
Yangtze River highest for nearly 50 years.
Million people made homeless.
4. TURKEY: Record-breaking 43C (109.4F) on
July 3 in Antalya. Average is 34C (93.2F).
Ankara 37C (98.6F) on July 25, seven degrees
above average.
5. MALTA: Record-breaking 41.2C (106.2F)
Average is 29C (84.2F).
6. KUWAIT: Record-breaking 49.4C (120.9F)
on August 2.
7. RUSSIA: Record-breaking 37.2C (99F) in
Penza, 300 miles southeast of Moscow.
8. SYRIA: Damascus hits 38C (100.4F) on July
31, followed by record overnight low of 11C
(51.8F).
9. CYPRUS: Forest fires and record-breaking
heatwave. Temperatures over 40C (104F). Fifty
dead from heatstroke.
10. INDONESIA: More than 1,000 forest fires
cover hundreds of thousands of hectares in
Borneo. Flare ups in Sarawak.
11. GREECE: Forest fires threaten Mount
Olympus.
12. BRAZIL: Forest and grassland fires in
Roraima 250 miles long destroy one million
hectares.
13. BANGLADESH: Two-thirds of country hit
by floods in July, 10 million people affected.
14. CENTRAL EUROPE: Floods hit Poland,
Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary and Austria.
More than 100 dead. Doctors call for urgent
medical supplies.
15. SRI LANKA: Floods leave 12,500
homeless.
16. INDIA: Delhi has record breaking 46.5C
(115.7F) in May. Hottest for 50 years.
17. NEW ZEALAND: A one in a century flood
hits the North Island as 70mm rain falls on a
single night in July.
Nick Nuttall , The London Times