the global melodrama

[James Devine]

At 01:37 PM 8/18/98 -0400, Carl Remick wrote:
>Re Mark Jones': "K-Wave theory assumes that time's arrow does not apply 
>to capitalism and things go on for ever, like the mock-waves in a
>provincial rep production of Madame Butterfly. But capitalism
>had a beginning and it will have an end."
>
>As I recall, Nikolai Kondratrieff got sent to Siberia for the heresy of
>saying these waves were recurrent, rather than approaching a climax.
>Never been able to understand the animus economists in general show
>toward the K-wave (e.g., Alan Blinder:  "K-wave theory smacks of
>economic determinism and borders on mysticism.").  Certainly seems to be
>enough evidence of the toll taken by generational forgetfulness to
>support the K-wave as a rough rule of thumb.

One thing is that the best evidence for the existence of K-waves concerns
prices, not output or employment. Another is that the posited mechanism for
causing repetitive waves is theoreticaly weak. Yet another is that the
different theorists posit different dates for the phases of the waves (so
that some see a K-wave recovery at the same time that others see a
collapse). There are also significant differences among the K-waves. And
there are alternative explanations....

K-waves are more of a matter of faith (or if you will, an assumption) than
they are a serious theory.

Jim Devine jdevine at popmail.lmu.edu &
http://clawww.lmu.edu/Departments/ECON/jdevine.html