Just a few modifications to this list of references. One is that the book by Gerhard Mensch has been translated into English as _The Technological Stalemate_, but I don't know the year or publisher. Also, the book by van Duijn is the year and publisher for the original version in Dutch. The English translation was published in 1983 by Allen and Unwin in London.
Also, the original long waves paper by J. van Gelderen has been recently translated in full into English by Bart Varspagen. It appears in a recent volume on long waves, published by Edward Elgar, I think.
I would note for the curious that a variety of econometric techniques have been applied to the issue and to various data sets, including spectral analysis, Fourier transforms, and a variety of other stuff. Again, I would say that the results are inconclusive from such studies.
I also note that prior to the 1950s most economists accepted that there periodic cycles of various amplitudes, Kitchins, Juglars, Kuznetzes, Kondratievs, etc. Indeed the NBER was founded by people who believed in such things, and many who worked there such as Arthur Burns did so. Now all that is out of fashion for a variety of reasons.
Finally I note that it is possible to have a cycle, such as the approximately 14 year cattle cycle, that is actually chaotic. The cycle never exactly repeats itself. Barkley Rosser On Wed, 19 Aug 1998 15:45:09 -0400 (Eastern Daylight Time) "Rosser Jr, John Barkley" <rosserjb at jmu.edu> wrote:
> Here some references on Kondratiev waves, mostly
> favorable, but some critical; some theoretical, but some
> empirical or historical. Hope interested parties can find
> some of them somewhere.
> C. Freeman, ed., _Long Waves in the World Economy_, 1984,
> London: Frances Pinter.
> C. Freeman, J. Clark, and L. Soete, _Unemployment and
> technological innovation: A study of long waves and
> economic development_, 1982, London: Frances Pinter.
> Joshua S. Goldstein, _Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in
> the Modern Age_, 1988, Yale University Press.
> Richard M. Goodwin, "The Economy as an Evolutionary
> Pulsator," _Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization_,
> 1986, vol. 7, pp. 341-349.
> Ernest Mandel, _Long Waves of Capitalist Development_,
> 1980, Cambridge University Press.
> G. Mensch, _Das technologische patt_, 1975, Frankfurt
> u/Main, Umschau Verlag.
> George F. Ray, "Energy and the Long Cycles," _Energy
> Economics_, 1983, vol. 5, pp. 3-8.
> J. Reijnders, _Long Waves in economic development_, 1990,
> Edward Elgar.
> Rosser and Rosser, "Long Wave Chaos and Systemic Economic
> Transformation," _World Futures_, 1994, vol. 39, pp.
> 197-207.
> Walt W. Rostow, "Kondratieff, Schumpeter, and Kuznets:
> Trend Periods revisited," _journal of Economic History_,
> 1975, vol. 25, pp. 719-753.
> Joseph Schumpeter, _Business Cycles_, 1939, New York:
> McGraw-Hill.
> John D. Sterman, "A Behavioral Model of the Economic Long
> Wave," _Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization_,
> 1985, vol. 6, pp. 17-53.
> K.B.T. Thio, "On simultaneous explanation of long and
> medium-term employment cycles," _De Economist_, 1991, vol.
> 139, pp. 331-357.
> Leon Trotsky, "The Curve of Capitalist Development" 1923,
> in _Problems of Everyday Life_, 1973, New York: Monad
> Press.
> Andrew Tylecote, "History as a forecasting tool: The future
> of the European economy in an a long-wave/long-cycle
> perspective," _Review of Political Economy_, 1992, vol. 4,
> pp. 226-248.
> J.J. van Duijn, _The Long Wave in Economic Life_, Assen:
> Van Gorcum.
> J. van Gelderen, "Springvloed: Beschouwingen over
> industrieele ontwikkeling en prijsbeweging," _De Neuwe
> Tijd_, 1913, vol. 8, pp. 4-6 (the first long wave paper,
> well before Kondratiev's 1926 piece in _Archiv fur
> sozialwissenschaft, vol. 56, pp. 573-609, "Die langen
> wellen der konjunktur").
> BTW, since this will be my last post for the day, I
> think that it is of some value to show that Marx was not
> inconsistent. So many people simply dismiss him on those
> alleged grounds.
> Barkley Rosser
>
> --
> Rosser Jr, John Barkley
> rosserjb at jmu.edu
>
>
-- Rosser Jr, John Barkley rosserjb at jmu.edu