Wolf at the door?

Peter Kilander peterk at enteract.com
Wed Aug 26 21:42:44 PDT 1998


Carl Remnick wrote:
>[snip] Not so at the Wall Street Journal, where
>great gusts of laughing gas emit from today's columns. See for
>instance, A. Gary Schilling's "Deflation Is Nothing To Fear" -- quote:
>"What we are facing is deflation caused by excess supply, and history
>tells us that this is good deflation." History does, does it?

Ha! Yeah, by chance I decided today to test and hone my critical reading skills by picking up a copy of the WSJ. As you said, the editorial pages didn't disappoint. Besides the Schilling quote you mention, I had a few other favorites. First, there's the "tough shit / Say's Law" quote: "It's also clear that as excess supply becomes the norm in future years, deflationary pressures on commodity prices will only increase, which is bad news for much of the developing world. But it is good news for the U.S. Lower prices are sparking greater demand." Next, there's the "who said anything about financial collapse / thou doth protestith too much" quote: "If the deflation ahead isn't going to lead to financial collapse, why is it important?" Finally, I liked the final paragraph which, as you know, repeats the thesis sentence: "As the effects of the Asian crisis become more vivid, the fear of the bad deflation of the 1930s will grow. Fortunately, the good deflation of excess supply is much more likely."

Then, in the C section, "Money & Investment," the topmost headline reads "Bond Market May Not Be The Haven It Seems." Third paragraph reads: "Treasury bonds throughout the entire range of maturities now trade at yields below the 5.50% Fed funds target rate, or the rate on overnight loans between banks. That is a sign that many investors are beginning to suspect the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, perhaps by year end. In fact, the last time all Treasurys traded below the Fed funds rate was in February 1990, before the Fed acted to lower rates." Not necessarily disaster, but didn't the Great Diviner recently make noises about raising rates?

Below that piece, the healine reads "Deflation Becomes Worry For Some Firms, Holders" and the first paragraphs read: "For months, stock market bulls have taken comfort in an important historic observation: Postwar bear markets have almost all begun with rising inflation and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and neither is on the horizon. The signs are growing that this time could be different." And later on: "Still it's not a foregone conclusion that flat to falling prices will deflate earnings and spark a bear market. For example, if costs fall in line with, or further than, prices, then profit margins can remain stable or expand." New economy indeed.



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