"Better times" cannot sustain stock prices

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Sun May 3 09:38:24 PDT 1998


Patrick Bond wrote:


>As overaccumulation begins to set in, as structural
>bottlenecks emerge, and as profit rates fall in the
>productive sectors of an economy, capitalists begin to
>shift their investable funds out of reinvestment in
>plant, equipment and labour power, and instead seek
>refuge in financial assets.

Hmm, two things. First, finance is also a way through which the big bourgies force profit-maximizing strategies on fat governments and lazy managers - bond-driven fiscal tightness and stock-driven wage-cutting. OECD figures show a very dramatic recovery in U.S. profitability, from a low of 17.2% in 1982 (still, the highest in the OECD except for Greece's 24.1%), to 28.8% in 1987 (ahead of Greece's 25.2%, and the highest in the OECD - though they warn that cross-national comparisons should be done with "great care." Europe and Asia may be in the early stages of similar reconstructions. You do talk about the "control" functions of finance, but I think you underestimate how successful they've been so far. But we've been over that before. I'd also say that it's not that K seeks refuge in financial assets - I'd say that since profits take money form, financial K is just all that un-reinvestable profit in its natural guise. And the financiers have been positively extracting cash from the firms they own.

The profit upturn over the last 15 years has been pretty impressive, and it's strong evidence that Anwar Shaikh is right about the U.S. being in an up K-wave. Of course, it'd be easier to believe that if the rest of the world were in better shape. And if U.S. capital weren't in such a euphoric mood; earlier upwaves began with much more sober financial valuations. Though maybe the euro will force the needed wage and benefit cuts on the EU and restore profitability there - a dismal 11% average in 1982 up to only 15% today, half American rates, a comparison made with the recommended care.

Doug



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