The ramifications are extensive. How would it change society? How should it be designed to improve society (as if we could agree on what those improvements should be).
My experience with technology suggests it is very hard to forecast the ultimate impact on society and the shape it will take. Fully automated vehicles would have a profound change. Here are just a few hip shots:
Safety - Conceptually possible to cut accidents way down - computers are potentially more reliable than humans. Computers - It takes a computer to really mess things up!!! Cost - exchange cost of controls for cost of accidents paid through insurance. Freedom - increased for young and old who cannot safely drive, reduced for middle aged who want freedom to control own vehicle. Number of vehicles: Reduced Vehicle maintenance: much better Vehicle durability: Increased Living patterns - wider sprawl? villages that don't need to store vehicles? Less vehicle ownership Smaller more efficient vehicles Electric vehicles or less polluting vehicles. Vehicle cost: cost increase for roads and cars but insurance goes down. Life cycle cost potentially much lower for transportation Reduction in polution. Small cheap vehicles using less energy that anyone can get to work safely in without owning a vehicle. Easy ride sharing with computer link up. Reasonable access to jobs for low income earners. Intermodal connections far more efficient Changed view of vehicle ownership, pride in vehicles Loss of driving skills Potential for paralysis Note that all of today's new cars have computer controlled engines
I don't think any of this is obvious and it contains a great deal of potential. There is also a lot more.
Gary Wilson gwilson at juno.com 72 Boylston Street Jamaica Plain, MA 02130-2203 617-524-3147/524-7986
PS This list has too much volume and goes too fast. My cycles often take a week or two. Lists are a very small part of my life.
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