Runs, 80%; gets elected this time, zero %.
The real issue is if and how he plans to use the campaign to organize the left. A campaign can be a purely personal vehicle which steadfastly refuses to build anything, as many disappointed followers of J. Jackson can attest, it can be a non-campaign (Nader), or it can determine to leave something behind. Wellstone is an organizer and must understand this, but I don't know any more about his plans than you.
MBS