Barkley Rosser wrote: Date: Sat, 28 Nov 1998 13:20:37 -0500 (Eastern Standard Time) From: "Rosser Jr, John Barkley" <rosserjb at jmu.edu> Subject: Re: statistical fallacy of aging population?
Michael Pollak,
Sorry, but you are simply wrong. The classic pattern of the demographic transition is for the death rate to drop first, thus increasing the numbers of the elderly, and then for the birth rate to drop later. That has held true in pretty much every nation in the world. I am not aware of any exceptions to that generalization (although there are some where the birth rate has yet to decline, and others where the death rate has gone back up again either due to wars or AIDS epidemics). Barkley Rosser
John Taber: I heard it just the other way. First the fertility rate declines, then the population ages. I also heard that both lower fertility rate and aging population are functions of a society's economic well being.
Since this is a question of importance to me, I would appreciate getting it straight.
Does anybody else have comments?
There is Mountain View Research and a demographics group at Berkeley called CEDA I think.
Also, the Social Security Administration has a lot of demographic studies that might help.
I'm hoping an lbostist can set me straight so that I don't have to go searching.