For the past couple of years oil service stocks have gone off the map. Shortages for workers to build oil equipment is so bad that they are using convicts in Alabama and Miss.
I used to work with a guy who did oil reserve estimates and it is a notoriously tricky business. While I agree that the "end is nigh," the time value of money is crucial for the "market to work." Like that trade group, at a price of $15/barrel, nothing is going to happen. Obviously the planners at Amoco cannot afford to be myopic about this, despite their market mouthpieces and ideological needs.
Jason