Raising the Bar

Brad De Long delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU
Thu Sep 3 09:25:16 PDT 1998



>
>A related note: what with the massive
>breach of the "NAIRU"

Don't be stupider than you have to be...

Arthur Okun and company thought that the NAIRU had successfully been breached in the 1960s--that they could run the U.S. economy without structural changes at 4% unemployment and 2% inflation forever. The result was the 1970s--and the fall of social democracy as a governing ideology.

Be very, very careful before you try to repeat their mistakes: better to have 4.5-5.0% unemployment than to have a few years of 3.0-4.0% unemployment followed by OPEC Shock III, productivity slowdown II, and the second coming of Ronald Reagan.

At least remember that this program worked badly the last times it was tried--whether in the U.S. in the late 1960s or in France in 1981-82.


>
>A serious question is what additional,
>simple (if major) actions, such as currency
>and capital controls,

Malaysia's in great shape right now, isn't it?

Brad DeLong



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list